ANRPC raises natural rubber supply, demand forecasts

Kuala Lumpur – The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has revised up its annual forecast for natural rubber (NR) production and consumption. 

In July, NR production grew 2.1% year-on-year to 1.3 million tonnes, while global demand saw “a relatively faster growth” of 3.2% to 1.3 million tonnes, ANRPC reported 18 Aug.

Citing preliminary data estimates from member countries, the association said it expected global supply of NR to grow by 2.5% to 14.937 million tonnes this year.

The projection represents a significant increase on the 14.888 million tonnes estimate announced by the industry body in May.

Here, the association explained that an upward revision in production and tapping by Vietnam earlier in June resulted in improved supply figures both for 2022 and 2023.

On the demand side, ANRPC increased its full-year forecast to 15.601 million tonnes, up from an earlier estimate of 15.118 million tonnes – and last year’s global demand of 15.540 million tonnes.

Changes to the earlier forecast were linked to revisions to consumption forecasts made by China, India and Vietnam respectively.

China and Vietnam, noted ANRPC, revised their demand data retrospectively for 2022 and made adjustments accordingly based on current-year performance.

In particular, ANRPC said the higher estimate was due to a revision exercise from China for its domestic consumption from 2019 onwards.

Interestingly, it stated, China anticipates domestic consumption to reach almost 6.7 million tonnes based on an "optimistic outlook from the automotive industry in the second half of the year."

India, meanwhile, expects to witness 5.7% growth in domestic NR demand for the full-year, the association added.