ANRPC: Growing rubber demand signals 'potential market recovery'

Kuala Lumpur - Global demand for natural rubber (NR) in 2024 is anticipated to rise by 1.8% compared to the previous year, according to the latest estimates from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC).

Total NR consumption is expected to reach 15.448 million tonnes for 2024, up from 15.173 million tonnes in 2023, according to ANRPC's December monthly report.

The increase is largely attributed to revised demand projections for Indonesia and Malaysia, as indicated by the December estimates provided by the countries.

The anticipated growth, said ANRPC, signals a “potential recovery”, driven by a resurgence in manufacturing activities and a growing emphasis on sustainable practices.

This context, the association stressed that NR stakeholders needed to “adapt and strategise effectively” to capitalise on emerging opportunities in the market.

Breaking down consumption trends, ANRPC said its member states contributed to 73% of overall demand.

Among them, China was the biggest player with its demand representing nearly 46% of the total market share.

Furthermore, the country is forecast to see a 3.3% year-on-year increase in consumption, leading to an estimated total of approximately 7.216 million tonnes for 2024.

Following China, India is another key player, contributing about 9% of total consumption, while Thailand accounts for 8%.

Collectively, the three countries have “critical influence on the global landscape of natural rubber demand,” the ANRPC report added.

As for production, the association said the global NR output is expected to increase 2.8% year-on-year, reaching 14.291 million tonnes, compared to 13.908 million tonnes in the previous year.

Of this amount, 79% is produced by ANRPC states, down from an 81% market share in 2023.

The shift, according to the association, reflects increased production from non-ANRPC members, particularly in Côte d'Ivoire, which is emerging as “a significant contributor” to the NR sector.

ANRPC data also showed that for December alone, production is expected to reach 1.588 million tonnes, an increase of 5.73% compared to the previous year.

The rise in supply was attributed to an increase in production in some countries such as China, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Cambodia.

In November 2024, China's natural rubber production reached 138,800 tonnes, benefiting from enhanced weather conditions observed since early November. The favourable climate also contributed to a notable increase in rubber stock levels.

Projections indicate that China’s production in December is expected to hit 109,000 tonnes, marking a twofold increase compared to the previous year.

Thailand, meanwhile, is projected to experience a significant decrease in rubber production in December, largely due to heavy monsoon rains in the country.

Indonesia has also revised down its overall 2024 production outlook to 2.3 million tonnes, down 253,000 tonnes from its previous estimates.

ANRPC linked the downward revision to several factors, notably the ongoing conversion of rubber plantations into palm oil plantations.

“The increasing demand for palm oil and the low price of NR have also favoured farmers’ decision to shift away from rubber cultivation,” it added.