Natural rubber market 'set for uptrend' in first half

Bangkok – Global economic recovery and a continued tightness in supply will buoy natural rubber (NR) prices in the first half of 2023, according to the International Rubber Consortium (IRCo).

In a 14 Dec 2022 report analysing NR market trends, IRCo said production may not increase “at a large scale” in the coming months in the three major producing countries of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia.

This, it said, was due mainly to the spread of the leaf disease, erratic weather conditions, increasing climate temperatures as well as low fertiliser-input caused by elevated costs.

A drought situation in the region and an early departure of tappers from plantations because of low NR prices are further impacting output, continued IRCo.

Citing the latest statistics from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), the report forecast 2022 production to reach 14.343 million tonnes.

And with consumption expected to come in at 14.805 million tonnes, the global market is set for a deficit of 462,000 tonnes for last year.

Furthermore, NR production in Thailand is expected to be lower during the wintering periods in April, May and June 2023.

This, according to IRCo, will likely also apply to Indonesia and Malaysia, affecting the overall NR output in the region by around 10% in the first half of 2023.

IRCo went on to forecast an improvement in the global economy and a de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war over the next 12 months.