ANRPC forecasts only marginal growth in natural rubber output for 2025

Kuala Lumpur – After a 3.5% year-on-year increase last year, global natural rubber (NR) production is set to increase only marginally in 2025, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has forecast.

Overall NR output is to reach 14.897 million tonnes this year, up by just 0.3% compared to the 14.855 million tonnes reported in 2024, according to the ANRPC latest monthly NR report.

In particular, ANRPC said Indonesia was expected to report a “significant decline” in production due to lower tapped area as a result of a shift from rubber to other crops, especially palm oil.

Indonesian production is projected to register a year-on-year decline of nearly 10%, to 2,041 million tonnes, the association said in its January report.

Similarly, Malaysia is on track to register a 4.2% decline in output in 2025, to 370,000 tonnes, due to ageing rubber trees and a switch to other commodities.

The world’s third largest producer Vietnam set to see a 1.3% decline in production to 1.280 million tonnes, despite its broader goal of expanding the country’s NR industry by 2030.

However, other NR producing countries are set to increase output, with China expecting a 6% increase in production to 933,000 tonnes.

The rest of the world, which include African producers and non-ANRPC members are also estimated to increase production by 3.5% to 3.293 million tonnes this year.

Overall production from ANRPC members is estimated to decline slightly from 81% in 2023 to 79% in 2024 and 2025.

This shift reflects increased production particularly in Laos and Côte d'Ivoire, which is emerging as a significant contributor to the natural rubber sector.

According to ANRPC a new scheme implemented by Chinese companies known as 'planting and re-export' in the border region of Myanmar and Laos is expected to significantly boost production there.

In terms of NR consumption, the association anticipates a year-on-year rise of 1.8% to 15.625 million tonnes.

This modest growth is influenced by the revised demand projections for China and for non-ANRPC member for three consecutive years, explained the monthly report.

Particularly outstanding is a projected 110% growth in demand to 122,000 tonnes by Cambodia, which has a major destination for new tire projects over the recent months.

China and India, the world's top two NR consumers with 46% and 10% of total market share, expect to increase demand by 2.5% and 3.4% respectively to 7.163 million tonnes and 1.5 million tonnes.