ANRPC revises up natural rubber demand in 2024

Kuala Lumpur – The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has revised up demand outlook for natural rubber (NR), due mainly to ‘updated 2023 performance figures from non-members’.

The association now forecasts demand to reach 15.7 million tonnes, up from an earlier forecast of 15.6 million tonne and up 3.1% compared to 2023, said ANRPC.

Last month, global demand reached 1.283 million tonnes, marking a modest 2.0% increase compared to the previous year, the association said in the May edition of its monthly NR report.

However, ANRPC projects a marginal growth of 0.2% in demand for June, with outlook being potentially influenced by elections in the EU and India.

“These elections are expected to draw considerable attention as observers analyse their potential impacts on the global economic landscape,” said ANRPC.

On the supply side, the association revised down global outlook to 14.5 million tonnes, down 0.3% compared to the previous forecast but up 1.1% compared to the year before.

Based on preliminary estimates production reached 1.0 million tonnes in May, a 4.8% increase compared to the same period last year.

On lower global supply outlook, ANRPC said reduced interest from rubber farmers in harvesting continued to slow down growth in production, particularly in traditional rubber-producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

Additionally, challenges such as adverse climate conditions, leaf diseases, and persistently low rubber prices have also significantly impacted farmers’ production.

In short-term, Indonesia is anticipated to transition to ‘la niña’ and is expected to experience more rainfall through the end of June, while Thailand and Vietnam are set to have normal rainfall.

Consequently, ANRPC said, a projected year-over-year growth of 4.5% for June could be influenced by these climatic conditions, in addition to "other prevailing factors."