US tyre shipments to fall by 2.8 percent in 2006

Washington -- This year's tyre shipments in the US will fall by 2.8 percent, or 8.9 million units, from last year´s levels, according to the US Rubber Manufacturers Association (RMA).

The latest forecast contrasts with an earlier version issued in March, in which RMA predicted a 1.2 percent rise in shipments this year.

RMA said the decrease reflects the overall slowdown in the US economy as the second quarter´s GDP growth slowed to 2.5 percent from a healthy 5.6 percent in the first quarter.

Slower economic growth and higher energy costs are forcing consumers to prioritise spending, including postponing tyre replacement, the organisation said.

It said growth should resume in 2007 with total tyre shipments expected to rise about 2.3 percent, or 7 million units, to 319 million.

The RMA also forecast that:

-- Original equipment passenger tyre shipments will fall by 2 percent to about 51 million units with no growth expected in 2007

-- Light truck tyre shipments will hit 5.6 million units and 2007 should see a 5.6 percent gain (the category no longer includes service trailer tyres, so a 2005 comparison is not valid)

-- Medium, wide-base and heavy commercial truck tyres will increase by 5.7 percent to 6.6 million units, followed by a steep decline of 16 percent in 2007, as a result of fleets buying ahead of new US Environmental Protection Agency guidelines

-- Replacement passenger tyres will fall by about 4.6 percent to about 198 million units, although P-metric (SUV-type) and high-performance tyres should see some gains. Shipments in 2007 should rebound to about 205 million units

-- Replacement light truck tyres will fall by 7.6 percent to 33.3 million units as drivers switch to crossover and smaller sport-utility vehicles

-- Replacement medium, wide-base and heavy commercial truck tyres will fall by about 2 percent to 17.2 million units but 2007 should see a gain of 400,000 units to 17.6 million units.

From Rubber & Plastics News (A Crain publication)