Global NR supply to fall further as climates change

ERJ staff report (DS)

Kuala Lumpur -- Global supply of natural rubber (NR) continued to fall according to ANRPC data available up to October 2009. The ANRPC collects data from the eight countries which together account for 93% of the global supply. Total production of NR in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, China, Sri Lanka and Cambodia is estimated to have fallen 5.1% in the latest 12 months in 2009 for which data are available.

However, data reported subsequent to the official data suggests the decline for the full year will be even more severe, as heavy rains and floods have significantly affected NR output throughout the rubber-growing regions of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and India during November. Rubber plantations in Thailand's southern region and the north of Malaysia have been badly affected by flooding caused by torrential rains throughout November. ANRPC said, "This indicates the possibility of a substantial downward revision in the production anticipated for November 2009 and for the year 2009."

The ANRPC said, following a meeting of all its members in Vietnam in early November, that, "Climate change has become an issue of serious concern on the supply potential of NR. Apart from fall in yield, even the traditional rubber growing regions in major producing countries are gradually rendered

unsuitable for growing rubber."

The ANRPC said production in the last 12 months declined in most of its member countries. The top three countries, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia fell by 8.9 percent, 6 percent and 20.6 percent to 2.881 million, 2.639 million and 879 000 tonnes respectively.

Production in China and Cambodia grew by 22.8 percent and 83 percent to 646 000 and 35 000 tonnes respectively.

Overall, output from the in the last 12 months declined to 8.683 million tonnes from 9.153 million a year earlier.

ANRPC members include Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam.

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ANRPC - November 2009.pdf