Global tyre markets continue fragile recovery

ERJ staff report (DS)

Paris - Michelin has updated its website with tyre market data for the month of November. The latest figures appear to show a continued recovery in demand, though this reflects the sharp decline in demand seen in November 2008, rather than any significant recovery. In particular, car tyre sales in November were higher than the same month last year throughout the world in both OE and replacement segments.

In the OE truck tyre segment, however, every market in the world except Brazil fell in the month of November and every market fell for the first eleven months. Chinese sales fell, despite earlier signs of a sporadic recovery. Europe's sharp decline has continued. The site gives only percentage changes, not absolute numbers.

The year so far saw a sustained 64.8 percent decrease in European sales, though the rate of decline may be slowing. November's sales fell by 43.6 percent year on year. The dreadful decline in North American truck OE sales continued to ease, with sales in the first eleven months down by 40.1 percent, though the fall in November was significantly lower, at 13.2 percent.

The Brazilian market's sharp slowdown reversed in November. The year to date showed a fall of 25.6 percent, with the November figures up by 14.6 percent. Japan's situation is also easing, with sales in the year to date running 52.0 percent below the same period in 2008. Compared to last November, however sales were almost flat, at just 0.4 percent lower than the same month a year ago. China saw weaker OE sales in November, continuing the stop-start recovery pattern, with OE sales down by just 3.0 percent in the year to date, following a 1.9 percent decline in the month of November.

Truck replacement tyres in November showed a very different picture, as volumes increased around the world except North America. European truck tyre markets fell by 20.3 percent in the first eleven months, eased somewhat by a 9.6 percent increase in November. North America fell by 13.0 percent in the year to November, again eased slightly by a decline of just 2.9 percent in the year-on-year figure.

In Brazil, a year-on-year increase of 24.9 percent slowed the eleven-month figure to a decline of 15.5 percent. The sharp decline in Japanese replacement truck tyre sales continued in November, down by 22.5 percent in the year to date and up by 3.3 percent in the month of November, sligtly lower than the 12.7 percent increase seen in October. China sales for the month grew by 25.0 percent in November, reversing the decline seen in the first ten months and making sales in the first eleven months 2.7 percent higher than a year before.

As has been recorded elsewhere, the OE car business is steadily improving, and the figures in November are a significant improvement on the October numbers, though the year-to-date figures are still dismal. Michelin said the total European OE market for car tyres in the eleven months to November 2008 was down by 23.1 percent, while the year-on-year figure for November increased by 19.9 percent. The North American market also reversed the downtrend, but at a slower pace, with the equivalent figures showing a decline of 34.9 percent for the eleven-month period and a year-on-year increase in November of 9.4 percent.

China's OE demand was up by a massive 53.7 percent in the year to date and up by an incredible 64.1 percent in November, following a dismal month of November 2008.

In the replacement business, the decline in Europe reversed. In November the eleven-month figures showed a fall of 6.4 percent while the one-month figure grew by 9.2 percent: the second consecutive month of growth. In North America, the replacement market fell by 3.2 percent in the first eleven months, eased once more by the fifth consecutive month of growth - a strong increase of 10.5 percent in the most recent month. Chinese replacement sales continued to grow, showing growth of 16.4 percent in the year to date and 21.0 percent in the most recent month.

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Press release from Michelin