NR to remain short for the next decade

ERJ staff report (DS)

Cologne, Germany -- Natural rubber will remain tight for the foreseeable future, according to a presentation by Dr Stephen Evans, secretary-general of the International Rubber Study Group, speaking in Cologne.

Evans showed a series of slides which indicated that there is a large gap between the so-called normal production of natural rubber and demand. Today, that gap is running around 1.2 million tonnes per year -- or around 10 percent of demand. The gap will continue at about the smae rate until atleast 2020.

Although a supply-demand gap of 10 percent seems insurmountable, in practice, when prices are high, as they are today, many individuals will over-tap their rubber trees, which makes up most of the shortfall. however, this over-tapping can affect the productive life of the tree. it is not clear wheter the over-tapping can be maintained for the next decade.