ANRPC reduces forecasts of 2011 NR output to below 10m tonnes

ERJ staff report (DS)

Kuala Lumpur - In its latest economic forecast, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) says supply of rubber is slowing down, as prices ease steadily around the world. The latest advice comes from the may issue of its regular monthly publication, Natural Rubber trends and Statistics.

ANRPC, which represents the nations that produce natural rubber, said, “NR prices from mid-April onwards have been on the decline, although at a slow pace, on growing concerns about global economy, strengthening of Japanese yen and marginal drop in crude oil prices.”

It added, “Total production of NR from all member nations of the ANRPC is now expected to grow only at 5.8 percent annualised rate during the second quarter (April-June) of this year as per preliminary estimates available up to April and revised forecasts for May and June. The growth for the second quarter, as forecasted a month before, was 10.5 percent and the rate attained during the first quarter (January-March) was 10.1 percent.”

The output growth during the full year 2011 now stands revised down further to 4.9 percent from 5.8 percent forecasted a month before and 6.4 percent growth attained during the year before. The new revision results from a down-scaling of Indonesia's anticipated production for the year, to 2.891 million tons from 2.972 million tons expected a month before. Philippines also has downscaled the output anticipated for this year, to 107,000 tons from its earlier forecast of 114,000 tons.

As a result of these revisions, this year's total output from all ANRPC nations is expected at 9.936 million tons only as against 10.025 million tons previously expected and 9.472 million tons produced during 2010.

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