54.5 mpg: A supplier bonanza

ERJ staff report (AN)

Traverse City, Michigan -- To suppliers, the federal proposal to hit corporate average fuel economy of 54.5 mpg by the 2025 model year looks like a sales opportunity.

Exotic technology, such as plug-in hybrids and fuel cells, will play a minor role in upgrading fuel economy, industry executives say. The heavy lifting will be done by existing technologies that boost the efficiency of the internal combustion engine and cut vehicle weight.

Suppliers predict strong gains for products such as stop-start systems, gasoline direct injection, turbochargers, electric power steering and lightweight materials.

Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne told reporters the new standards will speed the adoption of fuel-saving technologies that have been developed.

"It will be a huge boost for the industry," he predicted at the Center for Automotive Research's Management Briefing Seminars here. "It's like walking into a toy store, and you can use any toy off the shelf to get you there."

Dan Kapp, Ford Motor Co.'s director of powertrain research, agreed that automakers can use a variety of available technologies.

"It will be a natural evolution of technology that is already in place," he said. The new CAFE standard was "a little more aggressive" than what Ford originally planned, Kapp added. "But it isn't disruptive."

Those technologies will make autos more complex and expensive. Computer chips and electronics will play a larger role, too, to ensure that the new devices work well together.

In June -- before the Obama administration negotiated the 54.5 mpg standard -- the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich., issued a report that calculated the cost of a 51 mpg standard.

The retail price of an upgraded gasoline-powered vehicle would rise about $5,270, the report estimates. The added cost of electric cars and plug-ins would be significantly higher.

Here's what we might expect to see.

Turbochargers and superchargers

Boosting to push more air into the cylinder can allow automakers to build smaller engines without sacrificing performance. Honeywell Automotive and BorgWarner Inc. are big turbo suppliers, and Eaton Corp. is generating interest in superchargers.

Turbocharger use on US light vehicles will zoom to 82 percent by 2020, up from just 5 percent in 2009, says Steve McKinley, a top executive with Honeywell Turbo Technologies.

Honeywell and BorgWarner supply turbochargers for Ford's EcoBoost powertrains. Ford has said EcoBoost will be available on 90 percent of its North American models by 2013.

Meanwhile, Eaton is developing more fuel-efficient superchargers that it says are competitive with turbos. The Nissan Micra small car features an Eaton supercharger.

Ken Davis, president of Eaton's vehicle group, says he expects to double the company's supercharger sales in the next five years.

Davis says superchargers can cost automakers about $200 per vehicle for a base unit to $1,000 for a complete system, depending on volumes and added components. But they recoup some of that by such trade-offs as eliminating cylinders.

Stop-start systems

The devices are used widely in Europe but are just entering the US market. When the motorist stops the vehicle, the engine control unit stops the engine and then restarts it when the driver lifts his foot off the brake. Stop-start can improve fuel economy 4 to 10 percent.

Robert Bosch GmbH, Denso Corp. and Continental AG, among others, have developed stop-start systems.

In four or five years, about 35 percent of cars and trucks produced in North America will have stop-start systems, predicts Doug Patton, senior vice president of engineering at Denso International America Inc.

"Most automakers are looking at it," Patton says.

Gasoline direct injection

Direct injection squirts fuel droplets under pressure directly into the engine's cylinders rather than into the intake manifold. Direct injection can improve fuel economy by about 5 percent -- more if combined with a turbocharger.

Kregg Wiggins, Continental's North American senior vice president of powertrains, says direct injection also improves the performance of stop-start systems because the engine can be restarted more quickly.

The addition of direct injection and turbochargers enables automakers to reduce engine size without sacrificing performance, Wiggins notes. "Those two technologies go together quite naturally," Wiggins says. "It has to be a package."

By 2020, about 45 to 50 percent of gasoline-powered vehicles in North America will have direct injection, Wiggins predicts.

Electric power steering

Instead of hydraulics, an electric motor mounted on the steering column or in the engine bay turns the wheels. Such systems can improve fuel economy as much as 4 percent. Major suppliers include ZF Friedrichshafen AG, TRW Automotive Holdings Corp. and Nexteer Automotive.

Better transmissions

As automakers redesign engines, they are introducing more efficient gearboxes such as dual-clutch transmissions and eight- and nine-speed automatics.

Aisin AW has developed an eight-speed automatic for Lexus, and ZF is delivering an eight-speed for the 2012 Chrysler 300. Meanwhile, the Ford Fiesta offers an optional six-speed dual-clutch transmission produced by Getrag Corporate Group of Germany.

Lighter parts

While automakers are lavishing attention on powertrains, virtually all suppliers are developing lightweight parts.

For example, Magna International Inc. opened a research center near Toronto this spring to develop composite materials for uses such as exterior body panels, structural components and cross-car beams.

The center is a joint venture between Magna and the Canadian government. Magna CEO Don Walker says suppliers are intensifying their development of lightweight materials.

"A lot of our products are pretty big," Walker says. "We use high-strength steel, we use composites. We are looking at lightweight components across the board."

Computer chips

Automakers will need more sophisticated engine control units to integrate all these fuel-saving technologies. Suppliers such as Delphi, Bosch and Denso -- which have the r&d resources to handle the added complexity -- will be in greater demand than ever.

From Automotive News (A Crain publication)