Synthetic rubber prices set to remain "incredibly volatile"

Akron, Ohio – Prices for synthetic rubber and petrochemical feedstocks have been "incredibly volatile" and are likely to remain so for a while, according to Bill Hyde, executive director-olefins and elastomers at IHS Markit.

"Energy- and economy-related fundamentals in the synthetic rubber market are encouraging, but risks abound," Hyde said in a presentation at the International Tire Exhibition & Conference.

Meanwhile, natural rubber pricing is largely to remain soft because of oversupply and the need for small farmers to keep on earning a living, the market analyst added at the event held 11-13 Sept  in Akron.

Hyde went on to identify ethylene as the main driver of pricing in the petrochemical and SR world.

"Ethylene is the centre of the petrochemical universe," he said. "It has a lot of co-products, most importantly butadiene. Some 90% of all the butadiene produced in the world is a co-product of ethylene."

New crackers

In ethylene, new US capacity has started up slowly, but eight crackers with a total of 10 million tonnes of capacity started up beginning of last year and through 2022.

Another 11 crackers with more than 14 million tonnes of capacity are under development, with three "well down the path," he said.

But although the US remains important in the petrochemical market, "China drives the world," according to the IHS Markit executive.

China will account for 66% of global capacity additions between 2017 and 2022, with 11 ethylene cracker projects starting up there, said Hyde: "This is the single largest short-term price driver."

Net imports of butadiene will decline over time, and regional price differentials should dissipate, especially in 2021 and beyond.

"Butadiene prices should be relatively flat over the next few years," suggested Hyde. "The key variable is that pricing outside of the US is based on the price of naphtha, which is tied to crude oil."

As for styrene, it is at the mercy of global supply disruptions, planned or unplanned, according to Hyde.

"Unplanned outages have accounted for much of the run-up in spot pricing over the past two years," he said. "Major outages in the past two years in North America have been significant factors."

Spare styrene capacity around the world has decreased, leaving the market vulnerable to supply and price disruptions, warned Hyde.