Cefic cuts EU chemicals growth forecast

Brussels  – European chemical industry group Cefic has pegged back its forecast for growth in the sector due to a weakening both in the performance of the industry and in the EU and global economies.

As a result, the industry association now expects EU chemical production to grow by just 1 percent in 2015 – compared to 1.5 percent forecast earlier.

During the first three quarters of 2014, European chemical output grew by just 0.9 per cent on a year-on-year basis, according to the latest Cefic Chemicals Trends Report.

EU chemicals prices were lower, whilst sales during the first eight months of the year were unchanged, the industry association announced 10 Dec

Latest monthly data show scant growth, with output in September, up only 0.2 percent compared to the same month last year.

Net exports of EU chemicals reached €26.2 billion for first seven months of 2014, slipping somewhat from last year’s record.

“Monthly data point to continued anaemic growth, with energy-intensive petrochemicals output falling further,” said Cefic director general Hubert Mandery, who called on the EU to address the need for competitively priced energy.

On a more positive note, Cefic said the EU chemical industry confidence indicator (CCI) “soared” in October, reaching its highest level since July 2011. Chemicals order books and output expectations components of the CCI were significantly higher in October 2014 compared with September.

Similar improvements occurred in other forward-looking CCI indicators, including production, exports order books, and stocks. The employment expectations component was at its most positive since April 2012.

EU chemicals sector capacity utilisation swelled in the third quarter of 2014 to 81.3 percent, the highest level since the third quarter of 2011. However capacity utilisation remains 3.7 percentage points below the post-crisis peak recorded in the first quarter of 2011.